EU feed production set to hold steady in 2026 despite disease, regulation and cost pressure
The EU feed market is heading into 2026 with a broadly stable outlook, even as producers face disease pressure, regulatory change, and volatile input costs.
According to the latest forecast from FEFAC, total industrial compound feed production in the EU27 is expected to reach 152 million tonnes, essentially unchanged from 2025 and representing only a marginal decline of 0.06%.
Although overall feed production is expected to remain stable, significant differences are emerging between livestock sectors and individual EU member states.
A stable total hides diverging species trends
Behind the headline number, the market is becoming increasingly uneven.
FEFAC expects:
- Cattle feed: 45.358 million tonnes (broadly stable)
- Pig feed: 48.520 million tonnes (-1.3%)
- Poultry feed: 51.588 million tonnes (+1.2%)
These differing trajectories reflect the unique pressures affecting each production sector, ranging from dairy market signals and environmental policy to animal disease outbreaks and changing consumer demand.
Poultry remains the primary growth driver, while pig production continues to face structural and disease-related challenges.
Pig feed remains under pressure
The pig sector is expected to remain the weakest of the three major feed categories in 2026.
FEFAC attributes the decline partly to continuing structural adjustments in several member states and the ongoing impact of African swine fever (ASF) in important pig-producing regions.
Spain is expected to maintain its position as the EU’s largest pig feed producer, although output is forecast to ease slightly. Meanwhile, the Netherlands could experience a more pronounced contraction.
African swine fever continues to be one of the most significant threats to the European pig sector, influencing both production decisions and feed demand.
Poultry remains the growth engine
Poultry feed is the only major segment forecast to show meaningful growth in 2026.
Countries expected to increase poultry feed production include:
- Spain
- Germany
- France
- Poland
- Austria
This growth reflects continued consumer demand for poultry meat and the sector’s ability to remain competitive compared with other livestock categories.
Nevertheless, poultry production is not immune to risk. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) remains a major concern capable of disrupting production, trade, and feed demand.
Poultry continues to outperform other livestock sectors, but disease pressure remains a key risk factor for future growth.
Input costs and regulation are shaping the outlook
FEFAC notes that feed manufacturers continue to operate within an environment of increasing uncertainty.
Persistent volatility in:
- Energy markets
- Fertilizer prices
- Commodity markets
- Transportation costs
continues to affect feed manufacturing costs and livestock profitability throughout Europe.
The European Commission’s recent fertilizer strategy has highlighted the close relationship between energy markets, fertilizer supply, and food system resilience.
Meanwhile, implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is adding new compliance requirements for feed manufacturers and ingredient suppliers, particularly those sourcing imported soy and other agricultural commodities.
Regulatory compliance is becoming an increasingly important factor influencing ingredient sourcing decisions across the European feed sector.
National differences are becoming more pronounced
The forecast highlights growing divergence between individual EU member states.
Countries such as Spain, Poland, France, and Germany are expected to perform relatively well, supported by stronger livestock sectors and favorable production conditions.
In contrast, countries including the Netherlands and Belgium may experience declines linked to stricter environmental policies, lower milk prices, and ongoing structural adjustments within livestock production.
The EU feed market is increasingly influenced by country-specific factors rather than broad, uniform regional trends.
Why this matters for the animal nutrition industry
A stable total feed production figure may appear reassuring, but it masks important shifts occurring within the broader animal nutrition value chain.
Changes in species-specific feed demand can alter:
- Raw material requirements
- Ingredient sourcing strategies
- Feed formulation approaches
- Demand for amino acids and specialty ingredients
- Investment priorities throughout the feed chain
The continued expansion of poultry production may increase demand for highly efficient nutritional programs and precision feed formulations, while lower pig feed volumes could influence demand for protein meals and cereals.
The challenge for the feed industry is no longer simply meeting demand growth, but maintaining resilience amid regulatory, economic, and disease-related pressures.
What to watch next
Several factors will determine whether the current stable outlook can be maintained through late 2026:
- Fertilizer market developments
- Energy price volatility
- African swine fever outbreaks
- Avian influenza outbreaks
- Implementation of environmental regulations
- Changes in ingredient sourcing requirements
Should any of these pressures intensify, the current forecast could shift toward a more defensive market environment characterized by tighter margins and slower growth.
EU feed production may remain stable in 2026, but beneath the surface the industry is undergoing significant structural changes driven by disease pressure, sustainability regulations, and shifting livestock economics.