Global Poultry Growth Accelerates, but Oversupply Risks Are Building

The global poultry sector continues to expand faster than previously expected in 2026, supported by chicken’s competitive price, resilient demand and strong production growth across several major markets. But the industry’s strength is beginning to create a new challenge: too much supply.

RaboResearch has raised its outlook for global poultry market growth in 2026 to 3%–3.5%, up from an earlier forecast of 2.5%–3%.

Production expanded by more than 5% year over year in several major poultry markets during the first quarter of the year, with particularly strong growth reported in markets including China, the European Union, South Africa, the Philippines and Brazil.

However, maintaining that pace could become increasingly difficult. As supply expands, economic conditions weaken in some regions and global trade patterns change, poultry companies may need to place greater emphasis on production discipline, cost control and operational efficiency.

Chicken continues to benefit from its price advantage

One of the main factors supporting poultry demand is its competitive position relative to other animal proteins.

Chicken remains comparatively affordable, particularly when compared with beef. This price difference is encouraging consumers in many markets to shift toward poultry, helping the sector maintain strong demand even as broader economic conditions become more challenging.

This relative affordability has been an important advantage for the poultry industry, but it could become even more significant if consumers continue to face pressure on household budgets.

At the same time, weaker economic conditions create a more complicated picture. Consumers are becoming increasingly price-sensitive, and this could eventually limit poultry demand in some lower-income markets.

RaboResearch identifies parts of southern Asia and Africa as regions where weaker purchasing power could become particularly relevant.

Rapid production growth creates an oversupply risk

Strong demand has encouraged producers to expand, but continued growth at the current pace could begin to work against the sector.

When production increases faster than consumption, additional supply can put downward pressure on prices and margins. This makes the balance between responding to market opportunities and avoiding excessive expansion increasingly important.

For poultry companies, the challenge during the remainder of 2026 may therefore be less about generating additional volume and more about matching production closely to actual market demand.

RaboResearch argues that disciplined and restrained supply strategies will become increasingly important if the industry is to preserve favorable market conditions.

More countries are prioritizing local poultry production

A second structural change is occurring in the way poultry is produced and traded.

Food-security concerns are encouraging more governments to strengthen domestic animal protein production rather than relying as heavily on imported poultry.

This movement toward more local-to-local production is particularly visible across parts of Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

The shift could gradually reshape the international poultry trade. Markets that historically depended heavily on imports may increasingly invest in local farms, feed production, processing capacity and integrated poultry value chains.

For established poultry-exporting countries, this means future growth opportunities may increasingly depend not only on exporting meat but also on participating in developing local poultry industries.

China illustrates how quickly trade patterns can change

China provides one of the clearest examples of this transformation.

Once the world’s largest importer of chicken, China has developed into a significant net exporter, according to RaboResearch.

This represents an important change for international poultry markets and illustrates how investment in domestic production can alter established trade relationships.

China’s changing position could also intensify competition in export markets, particularly as domestic poultry industries expand elsewhere.

Global poultry trade remains surprisingly resilient

Despite the longer-term movement toward local production, international poultry trade has not weakened.

Global poultry trade increased by approximately 3.5% year over year during the first quarter of 2026, following several years of relatively weak growth.

This resilience is particularly notable given the geopolitical disruptions affecting international trade and logistics.

Trade into Gulf markets has continued, supported by established exporters and regional trade routes involving countries including Brazil, Ukraine and Turkey, alongside commercial and transit hubs across the Middle East.

Changes in geopolitical conditions and shipping access remain important variables for both poultry products and the feed ingredients needed to support poultry production.

Trade disruptions could redraw poultry flows

Another major uncertainty is the possibility of restrictions affecting Brazilian meat and poultry entering the European Union.

Brazil occupies a central position in international poultry trade, meaning any significant restriction on access to the European market could have consequences well beyond the two regions directly involved.

RaboResearch indicates that such a development could create upward price pressure within the EU while putting downward pressure on Brazilian prices as product is redirected toward alternative markets.

At the same time, European buyers could increase sourcing from alternative suppliers, with countries such as Thailand and China potentially gaining opportunities.

Feed, breeding stock and weather add another layer of uncertainty

Supply growth and trade are not the only factors poultry companies will need to manage.

RaboResearch identifies several additional risks for the industry, including geopolitical uncertainty, the possibility of El Niño conditions and tight breeding-stock availability.

For an industry built around short production cycles and highly optimized supply chains, changes in feed availability, genetics, energy, transport or animal health can rapidly influence production economics.

This reinforces the importance of operational efficiency as market volatility increases.

Operational efficiency moves back to the center

After a period in which strong demand created favorable conditions for poultry expansion, the next phase may reward companies that can produce more efficiently rather than simply produce more.

Feed efficiency, flock performance, health management, processing efficiency, genetics and supply-chain coordination all become increasingly important when market margins begin to tighten.

For the feed and nutrition sectors, this environment could increase attention on strategies capable of improving feed conversion, nutrient utilization, flock resilience and consistency of performance without unnecessarily increasing production costs.

In other words, continued global poultry growth does not necessarily mean that every producer should expand at the same rate.

What to watch through the rest of 2026

The global poultry outlook therefore remains positive, but increasingly complex.

Chicken’s affordability relative to other proteins continues to support consumption, while international trade has proven more resilient than might have been expected given current geopolitical conditions.

At the same time, rapid production growth, localization of poultry supply chains, changing trade relationships, economic pressure on consumers and geopolitical uncertainty are creating a less forgiving environment for uncontrolled expansion.

The strongest operators may therefore be those able to remain flexible—adjusting production to market conditions while maintaining tight control over feed costs, biological performance and operational efficiency.

Source

RaboResearch’s Global Poultry Quarterly Q3 2026