Red lines in the India-US agriculture trade talks

Corn is central to India’s crop diversification efforts, especially in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The government wants farmers to move away from water-guzzling paddy to corn.

The fast-growing poultry sector, expanding at 8-10% annually, also depends on corn as feed.

But the numbers are tight. India produces just enough corn to meet domestic demand. In the past two years, India has imported around 1 million tons annually. With ethanol blending programs accelerating, corn is being pulled in even more directions.

If India allows duty free imports of US corn today, the landed price (including discharge and bagging cost at port warehouse) would be about USD 26.22 per quintal. The MSP for the upcoming kharif season is USD 27.97 per quintal.

This would make domestic cultivation unviable for India’s 8-9 million corn farmers. Worse, it could open the gates to genetically modified (GM) corn — exposing Indian farmers, who are not allowed to grow GM varieties, to unfair competition.

Soybean

Soybean farmers are struggling with low mandi prices, despite strong domestic production.

While edible oil importers bring in cheap soybean oil, domestic crushers face a margin crisis, caused by a global crash in soybean meal prices and aggressive competition from ethanol by-products like distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS).

Crushing margins have dropped by nearly 15% between December 2023 and March 2025, discouraging processors and hurting farmers. Many of India’s 6 million soybean growers are planning to move away from soybean this kharif season.

Some economists argue that India should import US soybeans, crush them locally for oil, and export the meal. But this argument assumes that the domestic production is insufficient and the global demand for the meal is limitless.

Both are questionable assumptions in today’s oversupplied market. If India wants to achieve some self-reliance in edible oils, it must support its farmers, not offshore the opportunity.

Poultry

In the US, chicken legs are unpopular—considered ‘black meat’ in a market that prefers boneless breasts. In India, they are a delicacy.

That mismatch has created an incentive for US exporters to push chicken legs in India, if allowed.

India currently imposes a 100% duty on chicken leg imports. If removed, landed US legs could retail at USD 2.91-3.50 per kg, much far lower than Indian market prices.

That would undercut not only Indian poultry farmers but also the domestic chicken meat ecosystem, which is deeply interlinked with corn, soybean meal, and rural employment.

Opening markets gradually

India cannot isolate itself from global markets. But it must enter them on its own terms.

As the 2024 report of the OECD shows, the contrast is stark: The average Indian farmer earns 25% below global prices and receives just USD 366 in annual support.

Their US counterpart earns above world prices and receives USD 17,100 in subsidies, and farms on land that is 160 times larger.

Agriculture is not just an economic sector in India. It is cultural, political and deeply human.

India has to open its markets gradually — but that would be done while ensuring that trade liberalisation does not come at the cost of its farmers’ survival.

Trade negotiations must be calibrated to protect both rural livelihoods and national food security.