Global Beef Supply Declines Expected to Reshape Trade Dynamics

Shifts in Trade Patterns

As supplies tighten, beef trade flows are set to shift dramatically. Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch, highlights that Australian beef producers will increasingly depend on exports to handle rising domestic production. Meanwhile, Brazil is likely to focus on expanding exports to global markets, given limited domestic demand.

Cattle Prices Reflect Supply Contraction

Cattle prices are responding to global supply constraints. North American cattle prices have been high for nearly two years, driven by reduced herd sizes and strong consumer demand. In contrast, regions like South America, Australia, and New Zealand have historically experienced lower prices, though this trend is starting to reverse as tightening supplies firm up price support globally.

U.S. Herd Rebuilding Faces Challenges

In the United States, year-over-year declines in beef production are expected to remain modest. However, cow herd rebuilding remains stalled due to slower development of replacement heifers, limiting recovery in production.

As detailed in the Rabobank report, the global beef industry is entering a period of transformation. Producers must navigate a complex landscape shaped by shifting trade opportunities, evolving weather patterns, and changing consumer demands. The tightening global beef supply highlights the importance of strategic planning in the years ahead.

Source: Rabobank