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21 Mar 2023

Brazil could overtake the U.S. as the world’s top corn exporter

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Brazil has gained a major role as a corn exporter over the past decade. Beyond the fluctuations of agricultural activity, the trend is clear: In 2013, Brazil exported just over 20 million tons. While at present the country is expected to exceed the 50 million tons mark by 2023.

This trend is completely the opposite in the United States, where cereal exports are expected to have a significant drop for the second consecutive period:

70 million exported in 2021,
63 million in 2022,
and a forecast of 49 million by 2023.

For the second time in its history, Brazil could position itself above the US in the corn exporters’ ranking (the first time was during the drought that affected the Corn Belt region in 2012 /2013).

The aforementioned estimates were released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its monthly World Markets and Trade report.

“Brazil’s 2022/23 (October-September) corn exports are forecast to match those of the United States at 51 million tonnes, in terms of expansion, production and strong exports in the second half of the 2021/22 marketing year.”

As for the global maize situation, the report indicates that by 2023 it foresees a decrease in world production, partly due to the terrible climatic situation in Argentina in recent months. Production increases in India, Paraguay and Turkey will not be enough to offset this sharp production drop in Argentina.

Regarding world corn trade, the USDA notes that:

“It is forecast to decline this month, as lower exports from Argentina and the United States are only partially offset by increased exports from Brazil, India and Ukraine. World imports are also forecast to decline this month, with cuts in several importing countries.

Analysts believe that the change in world leadership in corn exports is circumstantial, and that the US will return to lead the ranking in a not too distant future.

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